Evaluating Amid Uncertainty: Lessons from IsraAID’s Ukraine Emergency Response

When the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, IsraAID was among the first international humanitarian organizations to respond. Working across Ukraine, Romania, and Moldova, the IsraAID Ukraine Emergency Response sought to enhance the resilience of communities and service providers operating under extreme and rapidly changing conditions. The program combined life-saving humanitarian assistance with capacity building, aiming not only to address urgent needs but also to strengthen systems and actors responding to the crisis.

Between 2023 and 2024, Key Impact, together with Info Sapiens Ukraine, conducted an external evaluation of the response. The evaluation offered an opportunity to reflect on how IsraAID’s multi-sectoral approach functioned in practice, how change unfolded in volatile settings, and what could be learned from emergency programming under conditions of uncertainty.

The Program at a Glance

The IsraAID Ukraine Emergency Response was structured around several interlinked sectors, with the evaluation focusing on three core program areas:

• Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS)

• Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH)

• Child-Friendly Spaces (CFS)

Through its MHPSS programming, IsraAID strengthened the capacity of mental health and other medical professionals to address conflict-related trauma in hospitals across Ukraine. The program combined training, placement of psychologists in medical facilities, and ongoing professional supervision. In WASH, IsraAID partnered with local authorities in Mykolaiv to install reverse osmosis water stations, train local operators, and develop an interactive monitoring map to support access to safe drinking water. The CFS component supported the social and psychological well-being of children in remote villages close to the frontline through the training and accompaniment of facilitators delivering regular, child-centered activities.

Across all sectors, the program was implemented in close collaboration with local partners, combining technical expertise, financial resources, and material support with local knowledge and implementation capacity.

The Evaluation Approach: Adapting Learning in a Volatile Context

The evaluation was grounded in IsraAID’s Theory of Change, which emphasized resilience as a function of strengthened capacities, relationships, and systems. However, given the rapidly evolving context of war, the evaluation did not treat the Theory of Change as a fixed blueprint. Instead, it combined a theory-based approach with elements of developmental evaluation, allowing success indicators and evaluative focus to be adjusted as conditions on the ground changed.

This adaptive approach was particularly important in a context where implementation timelines shifted, access changed, and priorities evolved in response to security developments and emerging needs. Indicators of success were therefore refined iteratively, capturing changes at different levels, including professional knowledge and confidence, institutional practices, partnerships, and access to essential services.

The evaluation used a mixed-method data collection. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and direct observations, while quantitative surveys targeted trained professionals, service providers, and final beneficiaries. By triangulating across methods and actor groups, the evaluation sought to understand not only whether results were achieved, but how and under what conditions IsraAID contributed to them.

What the Evaluation Found at the Program Level

At the program level, the evaluation confirmed the high relevance of the IsraAID Ukraine Emergency Response. Activities consistently addressed critical gaps in service provision in regions most affected by infrastructure damage, displacement, and psychological distress. Mental health support, access to safe water, and child-focused psychosocial services emerged as particularly urgent needs, repeatedly highlighted by partners, professionals, and beneficiaries.

Looking across sectors, the evaluation found that IsraAID’s response contributed meaningfully to strengthening key resources of resilience. These included improved professional capacities among health workers, CFS facilitators, and WASH technical staff; enhanced material assets such as water infrastructure; and strengthened institutional and community practices. Importantly, the program also supported the development of new networks and collaborations among service providers, local authorities, and civil society actors, contributing to a better-networked humanitarian ecosystem.

The evaluation further showed that IsraAID’s partnership model was a central driver of results. Local partners consistently described the cooperation as professional, and trust-based, emphasizing joint learning, clear role division, and rapid decision-making as key strengths. At the same time, findings highlighted the limits of sustainability in an ongoing emergency, reinforcing the need for continued investment in partner capacities.

Looking back, the evaluation demonstrated that in protracted crises, impact often emerges through cumulative and interconnected changes rather than through linear progress against predefined indicators. By combining a Theory of Change with a developmental lens, Key Impact's evaluation was able to generate important learning about how resilience can be supported under conditions of volatility and extreme uncertainty.